Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W, S of 11N, moving slowly westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection, also enhanced by the monsoon trough analyzed in the vicinity of this wave, is noted S of 09N between 15W and 26W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W, S of 18N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to near 01N50W. In addition to the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N between 30W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to offshore the NW coast of Cuba, with a frontal remnant trough then also analyzed southwestward through the Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is occurring with these features. Moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring in the NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan channel will dissipate by early this evening. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf today as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico tonight into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern Yucatan Wed evening. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then retreat back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across the basin from the east.

Caribbean Sea

A pair of scatterometer passes from earlier this morning showed fresh to strong trades occurring in the central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are ongoing in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean. In the northwest Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail. Isolated moderate convection is occurring along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week and into the weekend along with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far northwest part of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N62W southwestward through the central and northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is along the front from the Bahamas northeastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front while winds S of the front are gentle to moderate and from the SW. In the eastern Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from a 1017 mb low pres near 31N22W southwestward to near 20N31W. Another low pres is analyzed near 28N29W. The pressure gradient between these features and high pressure to the north is driving fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas N of 27N between 25W and 35W.

Much of the remaining Atlantic is under the influence of ridging. Scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades across much of the Atlantic S of 15N, and gentle to moderate trades N of 15N and away from features described above. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to a weak 1016 mb low near 27N68W, to 24N74W and northwestward to a weak 1013 mb low near 25. 5N79. 5W, and continues from this low southwestward to the Straits of Florida. The front will remain stationary today, then the northern portions will shift east as a cold front tonight and Wed. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of 27N west of the front to near 76W will diminish by late tonight as the frontal boundary weakens. A weak cold front will move offshore the Georgia and northeast Florida coasts Thu night. It will then slowly move eastward across the northwest forecast waters into early Fri, then become stationary near, or along 30N and west of 70W by Fri evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and near the front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.

Posted about 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams