Tropical Waves

An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 05N to 14. 5N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 17W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 05N to 19N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75. 5W, from eastern Cuba to Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the Windward Passage.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 07N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N46W to 09N58. 5W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 11N between 40. 5W and 47W.

Gulf Of America

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N87W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the basin. Convection has dissipated in association with a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, however, moderate E to SE winds continue over the area. Seas are slight to 4 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb, centered near 34N59W, and lower pressures over southern Caribbean due to the passage of a tropical wave and a low center over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin. Seas in this region are rough to 9 ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Broad lift associated with an upper level trough and deep tropical moisture are aiding in the development of isolated to scattered moderate convection from 10N to 16N and west of 78. 5W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into the weekend, with rough seas there, near gale force at times. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A mid to upper lever trough supports scattered moderate convection over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard, Great Bahama Bank, and Bahamas offshore waters W of 74W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed farther east from 21. 5N to 29N between 65. 5W and 71W. Similar convection is also present from 21N to 28N between 50W and 62W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

Moderate S to SW winds are offshore northern Florida to 72W. Fresh trades are present offshore Hispaniola, and in a zone from 23. 5N to 28N between 48W and 61W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near-gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough along the SE U. S. coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola to near the Windward Passage. A westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into mid-week, then approach the Bahamas by late week before shifting west of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster KRV