Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC.

Special Features

Hurricane Melissa is centered near 30. 2N 69. 7W at 30/2100 UTC or 280 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving NE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are currently around 44 ft (13 m). Melissa appears to be under strong west-southwesterly shear. Satellite imagery depicts numerous mdoerate strong convection within 240 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Melissa is forecast to attain an even faster motion toward the northeast into Sat. A gradual turn toward the east- northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda this evening and tonight. Little change in strength is likely through this evening, but a weakening trend is expected to begin by early Fri. Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda by early this evening, with hurricane conditions expected there tonight. Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland Fri night. For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring 1 to 2 inches of rain through tonight. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa are also likely to reach the coast of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada Fri and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https: //www. nhc. noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www. hurricanes. gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

Corrected

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 04N to 18N. Since this morning its westward motion has increased to 15 to 20 kt as it is passing along the southwest periphery of a broad area of central Atlantic high pressure. An Ascat pass from 1334Z today reveals mostly fresh winds across the wave axis south of 12N and gentle to moderate winds north of 12N. Water vapor imagery denotes a small upper-level low lifting northward to the northwest of the wave near 19N56W. Upper-level diffluence to the southeast of this feature is helping to sustain numerous moderate convection that exists from 10N to 14N between 52W and 55W. Similar convection is west of the wave to near 58W from 10N to 14N.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic at the coast of Senegal 15N16W, and extends southwestward to near 08N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N30W and continues to 04N39W and northwestward to 07N52W, where it is interrupted by the tropical wave. It resumes west of the wave at 08N55W to inland Guyana near 07N60W. Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-39W, and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-31W. Similar convection is south of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 24W-35W and from 07N to 10N between 55W-58W.

Gulf Of America

The earlier strong cold front that swept across the basin is analyzed from western Cuba to the northwestern Caribbean Sea and to inland the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The gradient resulting from strong ridging that is anchored by a 1024 mb high over eastern Mexico near 23N99W is producing fresh to locally strong north to northwest winds over the Gulf. Seas are in the range of 7 to 11 ft, except for higher seas of 8 to 12 ft in the central Bay of Campeche and lower seas of 5 to 7 ft in the NW Gulf. Occasional seas to 10 ft are in the Straits of Florida. Cold air advection has settled in across the area allowing for dry and stable conditions over the Gulf. Satellite imagery shows broken to scattered stratocumulus clouds moving southeastward east of about 95W while clear skies are west of 95W.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong northwest to north winds and rough seas will gradually diminish through this evening. Another cold front may enter the NW Gulf on Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Melissa is well north of the area about 280 nm west- southwest of Bermuda, moving NE at 27 kt. The strong cold front that recently crossed the Gulf of America extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan Peninsula near the border of Belize. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates fresh to strong northwest winds behind the front that reach westward to along the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize and south-southeast from there to the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell with these winds, except for lower seas of 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are between 80W and the front along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are across the eastern Caribbean and over the eastern part of the central Caribbean along with seas of 4 to 6 ft per latest satellite altimeter data passes. Light and variable winds are elsewhere along with seas of 3 to 4 ft.

A trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, south-southwest to 16N75W and continues southwestward to near 13N79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 to 120 nm east of the trough from 15N north to inland southwestern Haiti. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to south of 14N west of 81W to just inland the coast of Central America.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front over the northwestern Caribbean will reach from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by this evening where it will stall before dissipating Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will follow this front. Trade winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean Sat morning as the pressure gradient between a tropical wave entering the region and a ridge building north of the area tightens. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat evening as the wave continues to move westward and the ridge further builds. Easterly winds will diminish to moderate speeds late Mon as the wave weakens and the ridge starts retreating eastward, loosening the pressure gradient.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section for the details related to Hurricane Melissa.

Hurricane Melissa is near 30. 2N 69. 7W at 30/2100 UTC or 280 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving NE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. A strong cold front is analyzed from near 31N77W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba. Mostly strong west to northwest winds follow the front along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. The remainder of the subtropical waters are under the influence of broad high pressure ridging anchored by two 1021 mb high centers, one near 26N47W and the other one near 25N35W. A trough intersects the high pressure area along a position from near 31N34W to 25N45W. No significant convection is occurring with this feature.

For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa is forecast to move to near 31. 6N 68. 4W this evening, to near 37. 5N 62. 5W Fri morning, then become extratropical and move to 43. 8N 55. 8W Fri evening, to near 49. 5N 48. 9W Sat morning, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 53. 3N 43. 2W Sat evening, and moves to near 54. 7N 37. 5W Sun morning. A cold front over the NW forecast waters will increase winds and seas over the western Atlantic ahead of Melissa through late Fri morning. Rough seas associated with the passage of Melissa will gradually subside through the weekend.

Posted about 1 hour ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre