Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24. 5W from 02N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 10N and from 12N to 17N between 20W and 30W. Dry and stable air will likely limit this system's development over the next few days, but a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical development within the next 7 days.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 01N to 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 14N to 18. 5N between 36W and 42W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 62W south of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from are from 10N to 18N between 57W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 87W south of 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted along the wave axis over the Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough Itcz

The monsoon trough axis passes off the coast of Africa near 17N16W to across the eastern Atlantic, reaching to 11N25W and to 10N43W, where it transitions to the ITCZ from 10N43W to 12. 5N59W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 14. 5N and east of 20W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from just along the Bahamas to near 24N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen S of 25N W of 91W. Relatively weak high pressure dominates just about the entire basin. Light to gentle winds are SE of the front, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, a stationary front over the Straits of Florida will weaken through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected north of the front while mainly gentle winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected to pulse for the next few days offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula as a trough moves into the eastern Bay of Campeche late each night into the early morning hours.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the Tropical Wave section above for information regarding two tropical waves moving across the basin. The interaction of an upper-level trough and the eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is generating isolated to scattered moderate convection south of 14N. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the Caribbean waters E of 80W. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere W of 80W. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in the south- central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a relatively weak pressure pattern across the region will maintain moderate winds and seas across the Caribbean through the early part of next week, except for gentle breezes and slight seas across the northwest Caribbean. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh trades in the south-central part of the sea and along the coast of Colombia late Sun into mid week, as the ridge builds in the wake of a passing tropical wave.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 26N77W to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NW winds, and seas 7 of 9 ft, prevail W of the front. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the front. An upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 22. 5N between 49. 5W and 56. 5W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 36. 5N25W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail N of 16N and E of 52W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a stationary front that extends from 30N72W to a 1010 mb low pressure over the northern Bahamas, then continues to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas off northeast Florida will diminish through Sun as the front weakens and the low pressure shifts north of the area. The Atlantic ridge will maintain generally moderate winds and seas elsewhere across the region through mid week.

Posted about 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster KRV