Tratando de darle sentido a la indescriptible tragedia de Texas
Al menos 82 personas murieron tras inundaciones catastróficas en Texas, que fueron pronosticadas con precisión pese a recortes propuestos en herramientas clave de la NOAA. La tormenta Chantal también causó lluvias intensas en las Carolinas, mientras se prevé una semana tranquila en el Atlántico.
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated around an area of low pressure – now designated Invest 92L – centered about 100 miles off the coast of northeast Florida.
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted about 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Kelly
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 13N and east of 23W.
An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 5 kt. A 1012 mb low pres is noted near 09N38W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong winds within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 12N and between 35W and 42W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found south of 17N and west of 80W.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and to 05N47W. The ITCZ extends from 05N47W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 11N and between 27W and 35W.
Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery in the eastern Gulf of America and in the Bay of Campeche. High pressure over the northern Gulf waters and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds in the Bay of Campeche, especially east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will develop off the Yucatan Peninsula overnight as a trough develops inland and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin through Sat, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. The high pressure will weaken some Sat.
Divergence aloft and diurnal heating supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and nearby waters. Generally drier conditions are evident over the central and eastern Caribbean, likely associated with a dry Saharan airmass. The subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds over the central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate to locally rough seas are noted in these waters. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong winds will pulse off Colombia overnight through Sat as the high pressure builds north of the area. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and Sat night.
A surface trough located between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and divergence aloft result in a few showers north of 22N and between 57W and 67W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure system centered east of Florida. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found south of 25N and west of 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an extensive high pressure system located north of the Azores. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 30W and north of 20N. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the forecast region through Sat, supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may bring fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds north of the Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night.
Posted about 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado
